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On November 5th, the United States will make a monumental decision: who will be the next president?

At the time of writing, Drift’s BET market predicts a 62% chance of a second Trump presidency. Polling in the swing states seems to back this up, however fine the margins are.

Despite this, an unconventional political predictor known as ‘The Keys to the White House’, predicts a Harris win.

This indicator, developed by Vladimir Keilis-Borok and Allan Lichtman, has accurately predicted 9 out of the last 10 US presidential elections, defying the polls in 2016 to predict a Trump presidency.

The system uses 13 ‘keys’, essentially true/false questions which assess the strength and performance of the incumbent party. Lichtman believes that it is governance, rather than the vigour of a campaign which leads to the election result.

To predict a Trump win, the incumbent Democrat party would need at least 6 of the 13 keys to go against them. According to the model, this isn’t the case.

Does this present an opportunity on Drift’s prediction market?

You decide.

That’s not all — Stand to win up to 4000 DRIFT when you place a bet on the Trump market and Kamala market. Eligible only via these specific campaign links.

Gauntlet Launches Hedged JLP Vault!

Drift is excited to partner with Gauntlet to offer a professionally managed, delta-neutral strategy on JLP.

With an APY of 30%, the vault is already at 75% capacity.

Just Driftings’

• Drift hits $500M in TVL! Thank you, Driftors.

• To celebrate the US elections, anyone who places a qualifying bet on the Election Markets can enter into a prize draw for extra $DRIFT! Will Trump be president? Will Kamala win the popular vote?

• We opened up more 50x leverage spots earlier this week, and they disappeared in an instant. Keep an eye out for more spots!

Driftors on CT